Start with what already happened. Then find what to do next.

Kapnova first backtests decisions you have already made to learn how your business responds. From there, it continuously finds, models and scores the next revenue and profit opportunities alongside your team.

We scope every engagement to target 5–10x the value of what you spend with us.

Causal scienceEconometricsSpecialized agentsHuman analystsYour decisionwith a confidence range
What we work toward
5–10x 1x, what you spend 5x 10x

Where the return comes from.

We scope the engagement around outcomes, not deliverables. Every decision Kapnova models carries an expected financial impact, and we measure what actually happens.

Revenue
Decisions that grow the top line
Total, then the part we caused
Pricing, promotions, launch timing and channel mix, measured by what actually created incremental demand.
Gross profit and margin
Decisions that improve what you keep
Gains, losses, what is left
Discounting, buy timing, landed cost and product mix, measured by their full impact on gross profit rather than a single week.
Contribution margin
Decisions that optimize variable spend
The range narrows as the record grows
Marketing, creator and acquisition spend, measured by what is truly incremental and what the next dollar is likely to return.

5–10x is the return we scope against, not a promise.

How it works.

Start with a decision, not a data project. Kapnova shows what your data can answer today, proves the model against outcomes you already know, then keeps finding what to do next.

Getting to the first decision
01

Read-only access to the systems you already run. Kapnova states what your data can answer today, what is missing, and what that gap costs you. Sentiment, competitor and category signal we bring ourselves.

Then it runs
06
Agents keep looking
Kapnova continuously scans your business, market and competitors for changes that could move revenue or profit, then ranks the opportunities by potential impact and urgency.
07
Your analyst prioritizes what matters
A Kapnova analyst reviews what the system finds, pressure-tests the evidence and brings you the few decisions worth your attention.

The decisions we help you make.

One engine across the three lines Kapnova works on. Each question fails for a specific reason, and each one has a specific thing you get back.

Where can we create demand we are not creating today?
How much can we raise price before demand starts to fall?

Price history alone misses how customers react to the increase.

Kapnova models both the direct price effect and the resulting change in demand to find where the increase actually holds.

When should we launch, at what price, and with which product?

Last year’s calendar does not reflect today’s demand.

Kapnova combines current category demand, competitor activity and customer signals to model the best timing, price and product.

Which channels are creating demand rather than capturing it?

Reported ROAS often rewards channels that convert customers who were already coming.

Kapnova separates incremental demand from demand that would have happened anyway.

Where is a competitor leaving demand on the table right now?

Competitive openings can disappear before quarterly reporting catches them.

Kapnova identifies the size of the opportunity, how long it may last and whether your brand is positioned to capture it.

Where are we giving away profit we could keep?
Are our promotions actually making us more profitable?

A promotion can look great during the week it runs while hurting full-price sales later.

Kapnova measures both effects together to find the cadence and discount depth that maximize gross profit.

How deep and how often can we discount before customers stop paying full price?

Repeated promotions can reset what customers expect to pay.

Kapnova measures how quickly that happens and finds the promotion schedule that protects annual margin.

How much should we buy, and when?

Buying too much creates markdowns. Buying too little creates stockouts.

Kapnova models both sides to recommend the quantity and timing that maximize margin.

Which SKUs and channels are actually driving gross profit?

The highest-revenue products and channels are not always the most profitable.

Kapnova brings together returns, freight, discounts and trade spend to show where gross profit is really coming from.

Which variable investment is actually earning its place?
Where can we cut marketing spend without hurting revenue?

Every channel can look productive in its own reporting.

Kapnova separates incremental from non-incremental spend so you know what can be cut and how much revenue is actually at risk.

Where should the next $1M of marketing go?

Average ROAS does not tell you where the next dollar should go.

Kapnova models marginal return by channel and shows where additional spend is still productive.

Is our loyalty program actually changing behavior?

Your best customers are often the most likely to join, which can make the program look better than it is.

Kapnova separates selection from true incremental lift.

What has to change to close the gap in the plan?

The biggest variance is not always the real cause.

Kapnova identifies what actually drove the miss and which levers are most likely to close the gap at the lowest cost.

You are already paying for most of this.

Just not for the part that finds the opportunity before you ask. Four line items, funded separately, that do not talk to each other.

Line itemTypicalWhat it doesWhat it cannot do
Attribution or analytics tool$25–60KReports what moved togetherGrades its own homework
Agency analytics retainer$60–150KA deck once a quarterLands after the decision
MMM vendor$120K+Media mix, twice a yearSilent on price, stock and plan
Fractional or junior analyst$60–120KAnswers what you askOne question at a time
Committed today$350K+Four line itemsNone of them talk to each other

Kapnova finds the opportunity, models what it is worth, helps you decide, and traces the outcome back to the call. Priced against the decisions it moves rather than against the hours it replaces.

Prove it on a decision you already made.

Start with a backtest on your own data. Because you already know what happened, you can judge Kapnova’s answer before trusting the next one. Or start with just your URL and see what we can find from public data alone.

Kapnova never executes decisions for you. Every answer shows the data, method and assumptions behind it, and when the evidence is not strong enough, we say so.

What we need from you
Sentiment, reviews, competitor and market signalWe bring it
Commerce and order historyRead-only
Advertising accountsRead-only
Cost, freight and fulfilmentRead-only
Your warehouse, if you have oneOptional

Access is to your own accounts, revocable at any time. Your data stays in your tenant and never trains another client’s model.

Start with your URL. Go deeper with your data.

Start with your URL and Kapnova will surface what it can find from public data alone. Then connect your own data to measure what past decisions actually caused and where the next revenue or profit opportunity may be.